Chaos (calamity ?) Of Govt’s Making and What Now?

—————————————————————————

Whether PM delayed the lockdown for politics in MP or not is now a small point. The humungous error it did was in not preparing. It did not prepare itself and its agencies neither did it prepare its and populace in general for getting into and staying in lockdown. So PM has become like Abhimanyu of Mahabhrat who bravely went in but did not know how to come out. But there is big difference. Abhimanyu had gone alone, here our PM has taken the whole nation along and now nobody knows hot to get out.
From 30th Jan, when first Covid19 patient was detected it took India 50 days to reach testing of 1000 per day in the population of 135 Cr. We went into lockdown with only handful of Covid19 labs in the area of 33 lakh sq. km. Even after that increase in capacity has been slow. So the nation doesn’t really know where she stands. The day there happens more tests we have large number of daily positives and the day there are fewer tests we have fewer new patients. (see first image - charts of daily numbers). 

Had we been testing adequately then as testing increases exponentially, the proportion of positives detected should have gone down. But instead ratio of positives detected to tests carried out any day has been stable between 4 to 6% since 19th March, since when the data is available (see second image). 

So if tomorrow we do 8 lakh instead of 80000 then there is ground to fear that we will detect 40000 positives instead of today’s 4000. So there is extreme urgency to ramp up testing so that in a short while we will reach a stage where we test 8 lakh in a day and yet find only 4000 or 400 positives, so that eventually we dont need to test so much and we would need only focused testing. 

S, Korea, Australia and New Zealand have achieved this. Australia even has claimed to have eliminated Covid19 (not eradicated).  Lets start with S. Korea as it has population density similar to India (actually more than India) and that more than 88% of positives have recovered there. (see the spreadsheet in the third image). 

So we get a good stable data. S. Korea is close to China and very intense connected with China and the western world. So the kind of control they have got over the epidemic, so early is very exemplary. They started high testing very early February, (see chart in fourth image),  

supported by checks at airports, lockdown, drive-in testing (anybody can go and get tested), quick segregation of positive patients before they pass on to many others. Due to these they could arrest early rise in cases there. So now they are abe to reduce testing and are looking to gradually ease restrictions with keeping infection in control. NZ and Australia started late but raised their testing with super fast speed (see chart in image five) 

so that to cover most of infected and probables in population. They too have managed to get spread in control. Compare these with India’s late start and extremely low level of density and you will understand why, we are in eighth week of nationwide lockdown with path forward in sight. 

Indian government has not been much supportive of her poor people but even if it was very supportive it could not continue this support indefinitely. Lockdown sure needs to loosen gradually. But before that we need to super urgently increase our testing ten folds, twenty folds. Then and only then can we detect most of the patients and isolate them and look to contain the spread. I don’t think there is any other way.

(Views, counter views on these as also if nay errors noticed in what I have written, you are welcome to share)

कोंबडी आधी की अंडं आधी

काल मावळलेला सूर्य सकाळी उगवलाय.  संध्याकाळी पुन्हा मावळणार आहे नव्याने उगवायला. सूर्यदर्शन घेऊन मी छाती भरून घेतलीय ती मी रिकामी करणार आहे पुन्हा भरून घ्यायला. संध्याकाळ-सकाळ-संध्याकाळ सतत चालू. काय आधी नी काय नंतर, काय नंतर नी आधी  काय.  उन्हाळा-पावसाळा-हिवाळा-उन्हाळा ऋतुचक्र सतत चालू.  दिवस रोज़ उगवतो पण ‘हर शाम की सुबह नई’. तेच ते तेच ते ,तरीपण नवीन ते. सुरुवात होते, नी संपते तीही सरुवातीच्या जागी येऊनंच. प्रत्येक शेवट हा नव्या सुरुवातीचा गर्भ असतो, प्रत्येक सुरुवात ही एका शेवटाची दवंडी असते. खरंतर आरंभ आणि शेवट हे आपण आपल्या समजूतीसाठी वापरलेले शब्द. नाहीतर कसली सुरुवात नी कसला शेवट. चंद्र पृथ्वीभोवती फिरतो, पृथ्वी सूर्याभोवती, तसंच इतर ग्रहांचं आणि त्यांच्या चंद्रांचं, मग ही आपली सूर्यमाला मोठ्या सूर्याभोवती फिरते,  अशा अनेक सूर्यमाला आकाशगंगेभोवती, एक आकाशगंगा दुस-या आकाशगंगेभोवती, अशा अनेक आकाशगंगा तिस-या आकाशगंगेभोवती, काही एकमेकांभोवती. पण फिरणं सतत चालू. कोणीही स्थिर नाही, काहीही स्थिर नाही. वर गेलंय ते खाली येणार, खाली आलंय ते वर जाणार. जवळ आहे ते लांब जाऊन जवळ येणार, लांब आहे ते जवळ येऊन लांब जाणार, मग पुन्हा सुरू. समुद्रातलं बाष्प वर गेलं, त्याचे ढग बनले, ढग पाऊस बनून जमिनीवर खाली आले, नद्यानाल्यांतून ते पाणी समुद्राला मिळाले पुन्हा ढग बनण्यासाठी.

आपल्या आयुष्यातही हेच, सतत. श्वास-उच्छ्वास-श्वास-उच्छ्वास, उठणे-झोपणे-उठणे-झोपणे सतत चालू. उठतो रोजच आपण, पण रोज उठल्यावर आपल्याला वेगळं वाटतं. कालच्यासारखं आज नसतं आजच्यासारखं कधीच नव्हतं, कधीच नसेल. नैसर्गिक क्रियाप्रक्रियांमध्ये आपण अशी अनंत चक्र अनुभवत असतो. तेच आपण आपल्या आवडीनिवडीत, आपल्या वर्तणुकीतही साहजिकपणे सामावून घेतलं आहे. अगदी आपल्या रंगसंगती, फॅशन सगळीकडे बदल करत करत परत पहिल्या जागी.  आपली कोळीनृत्य पहा. समुद्रच्या लाटांसारखं आलेआलेआले नि गेलेगेलेगेले. आपली आदिवासी नृत्य पहा किंवा लोकनृत्य पहा. संगीतात, गाण्यांत, पदन्यासात असेच पुनरावृत्तीचे अनुभव येत राहतात. भारतीय संगीतात शास्त्रीय पद्धतीने याची आवर्तानांत बांधणी केली आहे. गायन असो वा वादन असो, तालाप्रमाणे कुठेही फिरून कलाकार समेवर येतोच, नी तिथून पुन्हा उठतो. १० मात्रा, ११ मात्रा, १४-१६ मात्रा असतील, ताल कुठलाही असो, राग कुठलाही असो पण समेवर येणं काही चुकणार नाही. त्यात कंटाळवाणा तेचतेचपणा नसतो. प्रत्येक आवर्तन वेगळं , प्रत्येक आवर्तनाचं नाविन्य वेगळं, प्रत्येक आवर्तनातलं सर्जन वेगळं, सृष्टीचं व्यक्त होणंच जणू.

भारतीय परंपरेत, धार्मिक विचारांत विश्वाच्या चक्रागार गतीचा फ़ार खोलवर विचार केला आहें. आपल्या अनुभावांच्याच नाही तर आपल्या अनुभवक्षमतेच्याही मर्यादा जाणल्या आहेत आणि त्याच्या पलिकडे असलेली विश्वाची अगाधता जाणून घ्यायचा प्रयत्न केला आहे. समजापलिकडच्या गोष्टी उमगून घ्यायचा प्रयत्न केला आहे. अनेकदा आपले अनुभव एकदिशी असतात. काळ पुन्हा येत नाही, येऊ शकत नाही असे आपले अनुभव सांगतात. जन्म घेतल्यावर बालपण, तरुणपण, वार्धक्य नि शवटी मरून संपून जायचं असे आपले अनुभव आहेत. पण विश्वात काही निर्माण होत नाही नि काही नष्टही होत नाही. सृष्टीत जे आहे ते आहे. संपूर्ण सृष्टीचा आत्मा समान आहे, एक आहे. त्यामुळे जन्म म्हणजे आरंभ आणि मृत्यू म्हणजे अंत असं असू शकत नाही.  जन्म-मृत्यू-जन्म-मृत्यू अशा अथक अनंत आवर्तनांतला जन्म ते मृत्यू एव्हढाच भाग आपल्या पार्थिव अनुभवांना जाणवतो. म्हणून मग पुढच्या जन्मला पुनर्जन्म असं नाव दिलं. वैश्विक पातळीवर जसा पुनर्जन्म तसाच पुनर्मृत्यू, दोन्ही एकच. 

सृष्टी अशी आवर्तनांनी बनलेलेी आहें कारण विश्वच मूळी एक आवर्तन आहें. आपल्या समजूतीसाठी त्या आवर्तनांचे भाग करून त्यांना नावं दिली आहेत.  सत्यतुग, त्रेतायुग, द्वपारयुग, कलियुग नि पुन्हा सत्ययुग असा काल फिरत असतो. काल आणि कालौघाने त्याबरोबर फिरणारे विश्व अनादी अनंत आहेत. अनेक शहरांत पर्यटनासाठी चक्राकार फिरणारी हॉप-ऑन-हॉप-ऑफ बस असते ना, आपण पाहिजे तेव्हा पाहिजे तिथे चढतो नि पाहिजे तेव्हा पाहिजे तिथे उतरतो. तोच आपला प्रवास, तोच आपला विश्वाचा अनुभव. बस मात्र चालूच असते, अव्याहत. तिचा प्रवास संतत आवर्तानांचा, ना सुरुवात ना शेवट.

कळलं ना, कोंबडी आधी की अंडं आधी ते ? !

Money Is A Vestige Of Evolution And Adults Need To Return To Childhood

Money Is A Vestige Of Evolution And Adults Need To Return To Childhood 

If there is one immolation common across all species of animals, birds and fish then it is feeling of insecurity. Everybody out there in nature is permanently on watch, even while asleep. Nobody there can afford to have hours of deep sleep, nobody can afford to sleep like a log. They would simply be eaten away. Even when they are sleeping their ears or noses are awake to respond immediately. From mightiest elephant, strongest tiger to tiniest insect everybody is in permanent state fear. After insecurity about survival is addressed, there next imminent insecurity is about food. Nobody has assured food supply and when supply is abundant there is no guarantee that they will able to avail it. Different animals adopt different strategies to keep themselves well fed. Most common strategy is to eat quickly whenever and whatever food is available. Carnivores typically eat very fast, for a pack hyenas often shoo away family of lions from its kill. Herbivorous animals and birds usually have much more food availability but they have to spend lot of time and energy into watching they don’t get preyed. Many species of monkey have cavities just after their mouth. They gulp food when available and store it in those cavities to be chewed later. Barring very few species, mostly of insects, nobody else has any significant ability to safely store food to be eaten  at a later time.

After early ancestors of humans came down from trees and became hunter-gatherers, they also developed a skill which is very rare and very limited in animal kingdom. This skill is communication , language. This helped to act in collective actions. They managed to garner collective strength which was far greater than sum of individual strength. This helped them to gather food more than their immediate hunger, more than their needs of near future. This was first stage of stocking. Gradually their power over food supply and security increased, and consequently their population also increased. Even then their strength was very small in front of vagaries of nature. In addition they had another competitor - animals of their own species. In the process of getting top of uncertainties they went into habit of amassing. Amassing food, and means of producing food, increasing area of dominance of the tribe became part of nature. As humans evolved further and their social arrangements became more complex, these necessities turned into wealth. At the next stage of evolution humans realised that instead of fighting with neighbouring tribe it is fruitful to make peace and deal with them. This developed into exchanges and further into trade. Core interests in this remained to increase safety and security and to increase areas of influence, aka control. As trade evolved alongwith means of travel and communication there needed to be common ways fo valuing material wealth that was traded. From this need arose money. Ways and means of this common denominator, money, started taking predominance over wealth that was to be valued using money. Money became wealth in itself, the most important wealth. 

By this time evolution gathered speed, so much speed that earlier timeframe of evolution became redundant and we had to coin a new term called development.In this period of development there have been humungous changes in material situation of humans but during this time there are hardly any changes in anatomy and physiology.  This period of development is very small in evolution’s clock. Consequently human psychology has remained almost unchanged from that of animal kingdom. Though there is no practical need, humans still feel that ancient insecurity and then they act and react in that animal fashion. So this desire to earn more and more money, to accumulate more and more wealth is a vestige that did not get removed even when its time has long gone. 

In animal kingdom, after the time used for searching/hunting for food and feeding themselves, rest of the time goes in intermittent resting, being watch and using strategies to stay safe. Humans have developed abilities due which demand on time for food has reduced to a fraction of amount of time animals need for that. Also human achieved high level of safety and security through social arrangements and through technology. They no more need to be on guard. Humans can afford to sleep like a log … for eight hours. What do they do with the time left in hand ? Animals just rest and stay away from danger. Humans have developed mental and emotional abilities that don’t let them stay idle. Humans need to dream, think, act. So they go on to provide for future. Even after this a lot of time is left at hand. Humans use all that time to do what their genes tell them should be done at such times. They earn more money, more and more money, to amass wealth, as much as wealth as can be amassed.  So much so that amassing money and wealth has become an end in itself. This has diverse adverse effects. Firstly humans lose pure joy of doing, learning. Children do things, learn things purely because thats what they want to do. Everything is play, everything is fun. Though human ability to develop is unbound, the resources available in nature and wealth that humans can create is not infinite. This puts humans in competition with each other. Competition is often good as it stretches human abilities. But an unbound desire to own finite available wealth has ended up in a few owning a lot and a many hardly getting anything. Ever increasing human abilities and focus on material wealth has put ever increasing stress on finite resources available on this earth. Resources are getting eroded much faster than they can be replenished. 

We have been hearing some of these later things for decades now without any change. We are faced with core questions of ‘if not this then what?’. These questions are in two forms - what and how. First question is ‘If not money then what  ?’ and the second is ’If not earn then do what ?’.   Answer to the first is giving off our focus on money and monetary wealth, a psychological vestige of evolution. And then return to our childhood. Learn things for sheer amusement of learning, do things for the sheer joy of doing, get better at doing for sheer amazement of bettering ! Life will be so much joy

(Note: These are thoughts emerging from silent thinking)

Privacy

Privacy

A few years ago there were huge debates world over about net neutrality. It was about whether service providers, search engines can choose what to show and what not. Their argument was that since we provide so we decide. Argument was that in these days of increasing importance of data and internet it is citizens right to have access to everything and to chose from those. Curtailing net neutrality would axe fundamental right to information.

In 2016 US presidential elections its accused that Facebok shared user data with its customers without permission. Cambridge Talentica in UK is accused to have used that data on their data analytics to know about inclination of users and then based on those analyses promote  selective material to influence americans’ voting decisions. Cambridge Analytica closed down 2017. 

Our personal data today has evolved into being a significant portion of our identity. So data is private and data analytics are paparazzi. If somebody peeps into our bathroom then our privacy of physical body is breached, for that one person. If a camera is placed there without our knowledge and recording is shared /sold to say hundreds or thousands then our physical privacy is breached to that much wider extent. Converting viewing to data caused wider breach of our physical privacy.

Suppose a popular fitness club developed data analytics technology. They fix cameras in all shower rooms, changing rooms and from those recordings of users they analyses physical dimensions, skin texture and colour, perspiration, sound recording of what users sing or speak there and so on. Then they sell these analyses to companies making clothing and dinnerwares, to matrimonials, to beauty products, to political marketers like Prashant Kishor. 

Until now this was group data without identifying individuals. Going further, based on their facial recognition software they identify individuals and link this data to their members’ database, and from there to geographical locations, to social media, to professional affiliations and then to family members and friends and co-relate all these to help interested businesses to present selected material, and in a way direct selections, behaviour, choices, opinions of individually and collectively. Important to note here that in all these, from camera recording to presenting selected materials there was no human intervention at any moment, and in classical sense there may was misuse but not breach of privacy. But the effects and impact was profoundly deeper and wider than a person watching us though a peep hole. With data and data analytics so much can be known about you that your name, even whole of your physical identity becomes almost irrelevant.

They can get know more about you than you know yourself. And I haven’t yet even mentioned government !

𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝟭𝟵 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗲 ?

To make any definitive claim one way or other we need to be certain that we are checking adequate number of population. Currently India is testing very low percentage of population compared to most leading countries and is increasing this number. If we are capturing large proportion of infected population then as testing increases then ratio of positives detected to number of tests should decrease. Also, roughly speaking, states with high testing should have low positives to tests ratio and states with low tests should have high ratio of positives to tests. The first does not seem to happening. Let us also have look at the later part of the statement. 


UP is testing 139 per million population and its positives ratio is 3.9%. 

For Maharashtra it is 626 and 6.3 %

Delhi - 1283 and 8.2 %

Gujarat - 462 and 6.4%

Rajasthan - 829 and 2.7%

Tamilnadu - 601 and 3.7%

MP - 341 and 6%

Kerala - 553 and 2.1 %

Clearly there is no correlation between testing density and positives/tests ratio. And hence it is inappropriate to make any claim based on these figures.

In spite of these we observe that positives to testing ratio in India is 4.7%. This is extremely low compared 10-25% observed in many western countries. Common sense suggests that if testing is low then as testing increases positives ratio should increase. That clearly is not happening. What could be happening.

It is important to note that India is testing patients with high degree of sysmtpoms (also if patient of respiratory disease dies then he/she is not tested posthumously to check if he had Covid). Symptoms of Covid19 are similar to many other respiratory infections and it is almost impossible to diagnose Covid19 without test results. Is it possible that Covid19 in India is getting mixed in other respiratory diseases ? Lets hav a quick look at that data

India population : 135 Cr

India death rate : 7.3 per thousand

Annual deaths : 9855000

monthly deaths : 821250

% deaths due to TB and respiratory infections: 7.6%
(these do not include non infectious respiratory diseases)

monthly deaths due to TB and respiratory infections: 62145

Consider death rate to be 0.5% for these infections
Monthly patients of TB and respiratiory infections: 1,24,83,000
Assume 20% go to doctor for treatment : 2496600
Number of these patient in one and half months: 37,44,900

We have tested 3,84,000.
That is about 10% of the total symptomatic population of non-Covid19 patients of respiratory infections. If we consider non-infectious diseases like asthma, which may show similar symptoms, then this percentage becomes even lower.

Bases on this data we can conjecture that until now Covid19 maybe getting covered up under huge number of already existing respiratory diseases. We really dont know how big it is. At present we can only say that it does not seem to have grown to size to affect existing large population of respiratory illnesses.


To really understand spread of Covid19 in India we need to either increase testing multifold or find out Covid19 symptoms those are different from other respiratory diseases.

Blind Date With A German

I overheard a friend talking about her. Just a few words, but so enchanting, so inviting. I got her number and immediately called her for a date. I had understood that she was German, But apart from that I didn't know her, hadn't even seen or heard her. But those word of my friend. I just couldn't not call her. She wouldn't know me either. It was a wayward chance. But she agreed ! Oh really, …. surprisingly, …. shockingly she agreed !! She agreed to come over very next day !!!

She came, we met. and what happened afterwards ….. even Gods would call that divine ! It was not her eyes, nor her smile. Actually she hardly smiled. There was serenity in eyes. We talked. But mostly she talked and I listened. She talked about earth and sky, she talked about her roots and her fantasies. She talked about her tree and the grass around. She talked about her branches intwining. She spoke of her fragrances and the juices they are made of and of the juices she gets from the soil she is rooted. She talked of deep soil her roots have reached and each tiny cells her roots are made of. She spoke of what she is made of and what she makes. She let me know both her inside and her outside.

And she let off her coverings , one by one, to show not just her amazing body but all her intense inside. Her beautiful shine and those intriguing scars at awkward places. Her grace was disciplined and her discipline spontaneous.

She offered me her milk, and her venom. When I drank both, she took me in and melted into me. I am a different person now.

जब हम चल बसे

जब हम चल बसे

तब सिर्फ दो बूँदे निकली

उन्हीकी सूँखी आँखों से

बाहरी सन्नाटा बस

वैसेही बजता रहा

खुदीकी अनकही अावाज से

Had Gujarat Riots Happened if Godhra Incidence Had Not Happened

If a man claimed that another person has encroached on his land and if one of the two is hindu and the other muslim, the dispute between them is a personal, legal dispute and not a hindu-muslim dispute.  If there is a dispute between area boundaries of two housing societies, it is a legal dispute nothing do with religion. The Babri Masjid- Ram Janmabhoomi dispute should have been treated just the same - as a legal dispute over ownership of the land - and not as a dispute between hindu and muslim communities , nor as a conflict between all hindus and all muslims. But thats what extreme thinkers  at the time of L K Advani’s Rath Yatra attempted to project in 1990. In spite of assurances by Advani there was violence and riots at many places on Rath Yatra route. While Advani and BJP leaders kept a sober tone , VHP, Bajrang Dal and others upped the ante to very high  levels. In addition to depicting muslims, all muslims, as vicious, criminal, religious predators, as threat to women and life, muslims were also linked to Pakistan and described as terrorists. So if there was any inadequacy in inflaming religious fanatism, there was nationalistic jingoism to assist.  Stage was being set, battle cries were raised. All these were showing positive results for BJP with significant increase in parliament seats and winning majority in UP Assembly elections.

Gujarat has a centuries long history of tussles between hindu and muslim groups. But in those days such incidences were treated simply as tussles between any other groups. Only in the British Raj were they came to be defined as hindu-muslim conflicts. Since about mid-eighties hindu religious organisations with extreme ideology succeeded in building coordinated networks. They were able to cross caste barriers and reach even to adivasis. Their work was not only getting hindus together on religious foundation and increasing their religious ego, but they also preached militant and aggressive philosophy and actual training in arms. In the same breath they slowly preached hatred towards muslims. ‘We are great’ took secondary role to ‘they are bad’, ‘they need to be improved’, ‘they need to be taught a lesson’ !

Amidst this, A rally was decided to be held in December, 1992.  Big campaign was run all over the country by BJP, VHP, Bajrang Dal, Shivsena and other hindu organsiations. Huge crowds of animated followers convulsed at Ayodhya site. Either they really went beyond control or had tacit support of UP government and Central government, but they went beyond shilapoojan and demolished the masjid that was there. Not only were there huge jeering and cheering about the masjid demolition but big insults and intimidations were thrown towards muslims. Fanatics in muslim communities were not going to let the opportunity slip out. There were extended riots in different parts of the country resulting in loss of much life and property.

These hindu organisations had successfully managed to merge hindu religious sentiments with nationalism, and conversely being muslim was equated to being anti-national and supporter of Pakistan. This success was a huge help in inflaming emotions further. In spite of this BJP could not win enough seats in Lok Sabha to form government on its own and had to look for support. Vajpayee was selected as being more moderate than Advani. This tempered BJP a little but it rebounded through VHP and others. Limited success needed to be fortified and improved further.

Gujarat was a big player in all these, aided by frequent hindu-muslim disputes and riots in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat etc. BJP won majority in Gujarat assembly elections in 1998. So in 1999 both Centre and Gujarat had BJP governments. It was time to govern . Under the pressure of governance Ram temple got pushed out of main political focus, though VHP and others continued working on their agenda. Governing was not easy, and in 2001 BJP suffered some significant setbacks in by-elections in Gujarat. Something had to be done. In December 2001 Chief Minister Patel was replaced by committed RSS pracharak Narendra Modi. And Ram temple issue was brought back into prominence. Senior BJP politicians kept talking peace and development but every time they also kept mentioning ‘traitors’ and Pakistan. VHP, Bajrang Dal and others became aggressive and abusive in their language, wielding trishuls often. VHP organised a maha yadnya at ram temple sight. Thousands of volunteers / devotees / ramsevaks from Gujarat went to Ayodhya, not just charged with building ram temple but full with hatred against muslims deeply ingrained in themselves. Even amongst this emotional high, in the by elections held on 21 February, 2002, BJP lost 2 out 3 assembly seats. Only CM Modi won his seat.

In February 2002 thousands of devotees (know as ramsvaks or karsevaks) had gone from Gujarat to Ayodhya at behest of VHP to take part in Purnahuti Mahayagna. On 25th February 2002  about 2000-2500 ramsevaks boarded Sabarmati Express for return journey, without reservations, and many without tickets. Each coach was filled with passengers douple-triple its capacity. Train started towards Vadodara. It is said that on all stations that the train stopped these volunteers would get down and create ruckus, often abusing muslims on platforms, making them shout “Jai Shri Ram”. (There are also hearsay reports of similar incidences on way to Ayodhya). It is not investigated whether this news had reached muslim community of Godhra, but strangely, government officials officials did not seem to have have any intimation or warning, before the train reached Godhra in early morning of 27th February. Godhra station is surrounded by residences of a muslim community. Some of them are reported to be involved in petty crimes at and around Godhra station and yard. On the platform of Godhra station there were same scenes as at earlier stations. There were incidences with vendors, many of whom were muslims. A old muslim vendor was abused. Some say the incidence happened on platform while some claim it happened in coach S-6. A young muslim woman was picked up by someone. Though she managed to escape and hide inside booking office, rumours started going around , or were deliberately spread, and easily believed that muslims women are being picked up and one is taken into a coach. Due to this and also due to troubles with vendors who had strong support nearby, fights erupted. Train started its onward journey to Vadodara but was stopped as Alarm Chain was pulled from multiple coaches. Some say it was stopped by muslim who wanted to stop the train and some say it was stopped by ramsevaks as many of them were left behind on the platform as the train started rolling forward. Report by the guard of the train said that many people from platform ran behind the train to get in. Arguments and fighting continued. Crowd also had gathered on one side of the track. Police theory claims that the crowd was part of the conspiracy, but there is nothing done to prove this. It could just be a crowd of people interested in finding out what was happening to their folks on platform, or it could be a crowd of mere onlookers. It is important to note that there were many women and children in that crowd. Train started moving again but the girl was nowhere to be seen. Some said she was in coach S-6. Meanwhile some in the crowd had started pelting stones at the train. So passengers closed all doors and windows. It became dark  and stuffy inside. The coach S-6, with capacity for 72, had 130-200 passengers in it, many were ramsevaks. Somebody from outside managed to make the train stop again. The train stopped at Cabin A about a kilometre from the platform. Stones were being thrown at the train. Some of the vendors had stoves with them. Probably using fuel from those stoves, burning rags were thrown into coaches - maybe to make the passengers open the doors. There were smokes from couple of coaches but passengers managed to quickly douse those. For reasons unique to S-6, fire inside that coach could not be doused and it spread very quickly inside the coach. Many investigators could not find conclusive evidence of what exactly made coach S-6 to catch fire so fast but everyone is in agreement that the fire was from inside the coach. Police theory accepted by the sessions court is that the accused got into the coach S-6 and set it on fire by dosing petrol. But none of the passengers have seen anybody getting in or throwing any liquid. All four Exit doors and doors towards both vestibules were stacked with luggage, some claim to prevent doors being opened from outside. Some passengers somehow managed to get three doors opened and escape started. One passengers has stated that there was some fire and lot of smoke and then big fire erupted at seat No. 72. When he was standing he felt intense heat on upper part of his body and so he crawled out. In a short while whole coach started burning. 59 passengers (some of them ramsevaks but others were normal passengers with reservations) were not able to come out and got charred to death. 

Police theory is that there was conspiracy to burn coach S-6 but the theory has not given any details about what was special about this coach that it was particularly chosen to be burnt. Police claim that accused came to spot with 7 carboys of 20 litres of petrol each, cut open the vestibule (which 5 ft and above from the ground) between coaches S-6 and S-7, cut open the upper parts of carboys, got into the vestibules with carboys (20 litres of petrol in each carboy) , broke open the door going into S-6, got into the coach poured all the petrol, and came out by opening a door, set the petrol on fire -  totally unhurt and unseen. Nobody from coach S-6 have seen any of this, nobody from other coaches have seen anybody getting in, nobody from the railway staff or onlookers had seen any of this. Theory seems completely implausible with circumstantial evidence against it. The Sessions court has accepted the Police argument on the basis of confessions of the accused made in front of the Magistrate, though these confessions were retracted later during the hearing of the case.

There are some more points to be noted:

• None of the railway staff was touched, even those who were hindu
• None of the people on the platform or in the station were touched.
• None in the crowd were touched, though it is not verified by the police whether the crowd was 100% muslims or there were hindus in it too.
• There were no incidences of rioting against hindus in Godhra town
• When a army man passenger jumped out of S-6 and was held by the gang of youth on the track, he pleaded that he was a armyman. On seeing his ID card he was allowed to go. Though seeing name he was hit saying “Oh, this man is hindu’, but in the end he was safely escorted away from the track
• Some of the main conspirators accused of planning a conspiracy were acquitted by the court. 
• No traces of carboys, neither of the main bodies nor of the upper portions which had been cut off, were recovered from the site - neither from coach, nor from vestibule, nor from track.

All these things strongly suggest

• There was no conspiracy
• Conflagration had happened on the spur of the moment
• The incidence, whatever it was, was not against general hindus by general muslims, but it was directed only at passengers, particularly ramsevaks by some people on platform and around.
• There does not seem to be intention to set a coach on fire, certainly not a specific coach S-6.
• Unfortunate deaths did happen due to a coach catching fire, some of the dead, though not all, were ramsevaks returning from Ayodhya

Around noon of that day, Collector of Godhra, Jayanthi Ravi had announced that it was an incidence of violence and not an act of terror. But by the evening, CM Modi had declared, without an iota of evidence, that it was a terror attack. At the moment police had no clue about what had happened and it was weeks later that they filed a conspiracy chargesheet. It may appear that CM was directing the conclusion of police investigation.  All the passengers of that train, even those who were merely gone as devotees and those who had nothing to do with ram temple, were called ramsevaks. CM and BJP leaders and hindu religious leaders  kept on highlighting that there were women and children amongst the dead. 

Next day, against the advise of some senior-most bureaucrats, government gave permission to get dead bodies to Ahmedabad for identification. Dead bodies were brought to Ahmedabad civil hospital before day-break, some accuse, in a big procession, with pilot gypsys and vans made to look like raths. VHP and BJP called bandh for 2 days. Again, in spite of the advise by senior bureaucrats to ban this bandh, it was not banned. Generally when there are possibilities of mass trouble, political and other leaders are detained till situation starts normalising. I have not seen anything suggesting this was done in Gujarat at that time.  There were announcements by senior leaders expressing grief which was ok, but the death of women and children was highlighted time and again till the election campaign in December, 2002. It was called an attack on hinduism and consequently an attack on the nation. Questions were asked to the citizens whether they will be mute spectators to attacks by muslims. It was told that the time has come to discard Mahatma’s philosophy. All these created a spark to the already overheated fuel. And the carnage started before noon that day! It continued next day, and next day and went on. At places muslims defended, at places counterattacked. There were some muslims who saw this as opportunity in adversity. This went on for three months. 

All the time later BJP, VHP and Bajrang Dal leaders kept on shouting how 59 ramsevaks were mercilessly burnt alive , women and little children among them, how these muslims hatched this inhuman conspiracy, how these demons were against our religion, our nation, how these devils need to be taught a lesson. And then they would entice the crowd to respond yes or no. They would ask if you want to be impotent when your women were raped and burnt. When it was found out that ramsevaks in the train had had fights in every station, had misbehaved with women on platforms and also inside the train, instead of checking whether that could be related to the subsequent incidence, leaders shouted “for 2 rupee cup of tea they burnt our women and children”. During and after the carnage these leaders proudly proclaimed how they had given up Mahatma and followed a true path. 

When the state government was severely criticised internationally for the massacres that happened under its rule and was accused of conniving with the culprits, and CM Modi was called ‘Maut ka Suadagar’ , he came out with Gujarat Gaurav Yatra. He toured all over Gujarat and held rallies enticing and asking people to shout against burning of women and children, to stand up against terrorists, to stand up behind those who gave justice, to be a nationalist and stand behind patriots of Gujarat and so on. And it bore tremendous fruits - from loosing by-elections in late 2001 and early 2002, to two-third majority in December 2002! Politicians accused of coordinating and directing the frenzied crowd won with thumping majority. BJP’s electoral wins were more fantastic in places where riots were worse. Party and leaders claimed being absolved of any blame for the riots. If there was any indication that government had helped in riots, then it would be taken to its credit. RSS man, a real hindu patriot, was king of Gujarat now. Years of hard work and planning had paid off. VHP and friends claimed to have earned the right to pronounce themselves to be sole representative of rising true hindus, that they say should be treated as voice of all hindus. It wasn't only about Gujarat. Eyes turned to Delhi and vision all over India.

Some say, Gujarat riots happened because Godhra happened. If Godhra had not happened? … This question by itself is an utopia. After years of planning, getting quick response teams ready, inflaming emotions , creating hysteria you just can’t remain a mute spectator to things not happening. Had it been not been Godhra it might have been some other place, if not train it might have been temple, if not people getting burnt it might have been idols getting destroyed. Something had to happen, hindu pride had to get its due respect.   

Whatever has happened or not allowed to happened, can not be changed. Then CM of Gujarat has now been elected PM of the nation. Ruling party is same. But people of the nation seem have learnt a big lesson. If election results in past months are to go by, if reactions to speeches and actions of religious extremism are to go by, people of the nation are not willing to get brainwashed into violence. There are people who are trying to create violence and there are people, even from religions’ fraternity, who are standing up against it. That may be a big long term positive for the nation !

References :

• Judgement of the Court of The Sessions Judge, Godhra - Sessions Case No. 69/2009, 86/2009, 204/2009.
• Books ‘Gujarat Files’ and ‘Scarred: Experiences of Violence in Gujarat’
• Documentaries ‘Raam Ke Naam’, and ‘Final Solution’
• Wikipedia and other internet pages
• My own interpretations of what could happen and could not happen and so on to what would have happened.